France vs England: My Pick for the Bronze Medal Nobody Wanted

Photo by YantsImages 02 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

France's first-choice center-back is out, Deschamps is coaching his last game ever, and history says this fixture always goes wild. Here's where I'm putting my money

Nobody wants to be here. Neither France nor England. They both had bigger plans for this World Cup, and now they're playing for a game that mostly exists to give fans something to watch before Sunday's real final. But don't mistake "consolation match" for "boring match" because this fixture has a habit of turning into a goalfest and this year there's a genuine reason why.

Let's start with the injury news, because it matters more than the moneyline does: William Saliba is out. France's first-choice center-back picked up a serious back injury in the semifinal loss to Spain, and he won't be anywhere near this lineup. Add to that the fact that this is literally Didier Deschamps' last match in charge of France (he's stepping down after this either way) so you've got a defense that's short a starter, coached by a man with nothing left to prove tactically.

France are the favourites, but not by much. Their odds to win is at 1.91 on the moneyline, with a draw and England to win both sitting at 3.80 — priced dead level with each other, which tells you the books don't see a huge gap between both outcomes. Opta's model agrees, giving France a 50.7% win probability in 90 minutes off 25,000 simulations, England 25.6%, draw 23.7%. Same lean as the market, no real argument between the two.

I was actually convinced on my pick by this though: 16 of the last 20 World Cup third-place matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams found the net in 14 of those 20. It's never a coincidence because that's what happens when neither manager has anything to lose. There are rotations, defensive discipline goes down, and fringe players who've been on the bench all tournament like Kobbie Mainoo get a chance to make a name for themselves. Saliba's absence is just this year's version of making that same pattern show up early.

One more thing worth knowing before kickoff is that Mbappé and Messi are tied at 8 goals apiece for the Golden Boot (with Messi ahead due to assists) and since Messi's tournament ends Sunday either way, this is genuinely Mbappé's last shot to pull ahead on his own.

My Picks:

Over 2.5 goals is my main play here due to rotations, a missing starter and zero defensive urgency stacked on top of a trend that's repeated itself for two decades in this exact fixture. So I'm treating it as a full unit.

I'll also take a smaller stake on Mbappé to score because being behind on the Golden Boot race gives him a real reason to play with intent even in a dead game, though I'm not going in heavy given Deschamps might manage his minutes.

Odds correct at time of writing. 18+, please gamble responsibly