The fight for Nigeria's presidency in 2027 is heating up inside the African Democratic Congress, and the central question is simple: can Peter Obi beat Atiku Abubakar for the party's presidential ticket?
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, former minister of transportation Rotimi Amaechi, and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso have all declared their intention to contest under the ADC ahead of the 2027 general elections. But it is the Obi-Atiku contest that has drawn the most attention, and the outcome may well determine whether the opposition can mount a credible challenge against President Bola Tinubu.
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What Happens if Obi Loses
The stakes extend beyond the ADC. If Peter Obi fails to secure the ADC ticket, his loyal base, especially the Obidient movement, may feel sidelined, leading to internal cracks or even defections within the party. The loss of Obi could also weaken the ADC's appeal among youth voters, handing an advantage to the ruling APC.
Obi's 2023 running mate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, who remained in the Labour Party, has already cast doubt on Obi's prospects. "I think it is very unlikely that Peter Obi will secure the ticket. If he does, I will be happy for him," Datti said, while pledging to support Obi's return to Labour Party if the ADC bid fails.
One pathway remains open, according to the thought leader who spoke to Legit.ng. "The only way Peter Obi can secure the ADC presidential ticket is through a consensus arrangement or if Atiku steps down. Clearly, Atiku appears to have taken control of the majority of the party's structures."
The 2027 election is still a year away, but the battle for the ADC ticket may be the most consequential primary Nigeria's opposition has ever held. Whoever emerges will need more than a party ticket. They will need to hold together a coalition that, for now, is held by competing ambitions and the shared belief that Tinubu can be beaten.