The fight for Nigeria's presidency in 2027 is heating up inside the African Democratic Congress, and the central question is simple: can Peter Obi beat Atiku Abubakar for the party's presidential ticket?
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, former minister of transportation Rotimi Amaechi, and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso have all declared their intention to contest under the ADC ahead of the 2027 general elections. But it is the Obi-Atiku contest that has drawn the most attention, and the outcome may well determine whether the opposition can mount a credible challenge against President Bola Tinubu.
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The Analyst's Verdict
Public affairs analyst Donald Okwuosa says the answer depends entirely on one thing: the type of primary the ADC conducts.
Okwuosa said Obi's popularity and credibility as a transformational leader are seen as assets, but that Atiku's financial influence and deep political networks could give him an edge in an indirect primary election.
However, Okwuosa believes a direct primary changes everything. "Considering the data registration nationwide, if a direct primary is eventually carried out, in the case of no delegate, which the electoral reform act has made mandatory, Peter Obi will floor other fellow contestants at the party primaries. A direct primary wouldn't give room for delegates; those money bags hoping to bribe party delegates to clinch the ticket would be so disappointed," he said.
The analyst also referenced the position of former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose. Okwuosa noted that Fayose declared Obi is the ADC's best bet to unseat Tinubu in 2027, and that without Obi, the party risks becoming irrelevant.